Lonely Power, Staying Power: The Rise of China and the Resilience of US Pre-eminence
Author: Dr John Lee.
Lee, Dr John. SEPTEMBER 2011. "Lonely Power, Staying Power: The Rise of China and the Resilience of US Pre-eminence." 10 4. https://www.hudson.org/content/researchattachments/attachment/938/the_rise_of_china_and_the_resilience_of_us_preeminence.pdf
In August 2010, China officially surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest economy. As the Lowy Institute’s Power and Choice observes, economic size matters. China’s rise and subsequent influence is built on the back of an economy that has been doubling in size every decade for the past thirty years. As a result, the capacity of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ‘for sophisticated, high-intensity operations along China’s maritime periphery has improved dramatically in recent years’, while China’s ‘interests, actions and intentions are assuming prominence in the calculations of other regional powers – not only major ones like the United States, Japan and India.’1
The common and generally correct assumption is that lasting strategic influence is built on the back of economic power. Today, however, Beijing is confronted with the uncomfortable reality that it has been unable fundamentally to shift the strategic alignment of even one major Asian capital. While China has emerged as the largest trading partner for countries such as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia, all these countries have begun ‘hedging’ against China’s rise, with varying degrees of intensity, by deepening strategic relations with America and each other. A similar dynamic is at work among the countries of Southeast Asia, despite the landmark China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement coming into force in January, 2010.
By contrast, China’s only true allies in the region are weak or failing states – North Korea, Burma and Pakistan. This makes China one of the ‘loneliest rising powers in world history’.2 The reality of China’s relative strategic isolation suggests two related conclusions. First, America will remain the preferred security partner and pre-eminent strategic actor in the region for a number of reasons that will be difficult to alter. And second, China’s capacity for translating economic size into strategic leverage is problematic now and likely to face sharp limits into the future.Published: SEPTEMBER 2011Typ: report