Author: Raphael Kaplinsky, Dorothy McCormick, Mike Morris.

Although SSA’s trade with Ch ina is relatively sma ll by comparison with its trade with the industrialised countries, it has grown very rapidly, especially since 2001. There is a danger of over estimating the historic and present impact, and underestimating the potential future impact of China on SA. A synthetic framework for assessing the impact of China on SSA involves three primary channels of transmission – trade, FDI/production and aid – and requires focusing on the complementary- competitive dimension of impacts, and on both the direct and indirect impacts. Since these varied impacts are unevenly felt within and between countries, as well as between the different channels , it is important to maintain a comprehensive perspective if the opportu nities are to be maximised and the threats minimised in such a way as to sustain poverty alleviation and to enhance income distribution. In summary, it is important to under stand that China’s impact on SSA cannot be seen as purely an ec onomic phenomenon. Fr om the China-end, the thrust to SSA reflects a mixture of narrowly defined economic impacts and broader geo-strategic concerns, including with regard to China’s long term energy- and resource-security. It also involves an assortment of public and private actors, sometimes acting independently, a nd sometimes in concert. Similarly, from the SSA-end, growing li nks with China reflects a combination of narrowly defined economic interests (for exampl e, in direct trade links) and more broadly-defined political factor s, including the quest by some fragile states to escape from pressures exerted by Western governments and NGOs to promote more transparent and better governance.