Author: Ron A Sandrey, Hannah Edinger.

Over the last quarter of a century, global trade patterns have changed dramatically. On the world scene, a major feature has been the emergence of several Asian nations as strong participants, with their growth being fuelled in part by strong US imports over this period and generally reducing global tariffs. The most recent Asian nation to steal the limelight has been China. China has been following the pattern set by several others such as, initially, Japan, then more recently Chinese Taipei (Taiwan), Singapore, Korea and Malaysia. However, the sheer size of China and the immense potential as this nation strives to regain its place as a ‘top tier’ global player makes it both an enormous potential market and a serious potential competitor in third country export markets and in the home market for imports that may crowd out domestic production. Thus, there are many dimensions to the ‘China factor’. The observed evolution of China’s economy is important for South Africa, which has since undergone considerable trade liberalisation of its own as the country puts the troubled years of apartheid behind it and strives for international competitive - ness. It is interesting and imperative to examine the implications for South Africa of the potential convergence of the two phenomena, i.e., South African trade liberalisa - tion and the phenomenal growth of the China’s economy. In particular, does China present export opportunities for South African agricultural products, and conversely, is China a competitor to South African exports into third markets? While China is undoubtedly much more competitive in global manufacturing export markets for products such as clothing and electronics (with automobiles poised to join these products) and is at the same time becoming a magnet for considerable volumes of raw materials such as South Africa’s iron ore, the issue of agriculture also needs to be considered. It is well known that China is drawing in vast resourcvol - umes of agricultural commodities such as cotton to fuel its manufacturing export boom, for example, but less is known about how the Chinese market will influence South African export commodities that do not share cotton’s high profile.